Monday, March 1, 2010

20100301 1843 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 2630, changed : +35 points, volume : slightly lower.
Bollinger band reading : side way bullish biased.
MACD Histrogram : slightly lower, seller reducing exposure.
Support : 2620, 2590, 2570 level.
Resistant : 2650, 2670, 2700 level.
Comment :
FCPO closed higher with supporting volume traded despite weaker export data released today for the month for Feb 2010. Technically, the daily chart suggesting a side way range bound upside biased market.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20100301 1733 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1283, changed : +6.5 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : bullish.
MACD Histrogram : rising higher, buyer still in charge.
Support : 1278, 1260, 1250 level.
Resistant : 1285, 1290, 1300 level.
Comment :
FKLI traded in tandem with world major market that closed higher. Today's up wide range bar ended almost at the high of the day right near the upper Bollinger band level. Technical reading shows that market is getting stronger for a bullish further upside market potential market provided that the Bollinger band expansion pace go accordingly to the price movement. Having said that, market may also need to get some rest as today has been the 5th consecutive up bar.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20100301 1305 FKLI Mid Day Hourly Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1282, changed : + 5.5 points, volume : high.
Bollinger band reading : bullish.
MACD Histrogram : rising higher, buyer still ruled.
Support : 1278, 1270, 1260 level.
Resistant : 1285, 1290, 1300 level.
Comment :
Seems like Mr. Bull has yet to leave! Bullish FKLI opened and touched lower level followed by strong fighting spirit buyer push FKLI to closed the first session near ther high. Hourly chart reading looks bullish but with price of the last 2 hourly chart candles traded above the upper Bollinger band could possibly triggered market to have a consolidate correction but moving upward further. Expect market to trade side way range bound upside biased.

20100301 1252 FCPO Mid Day Hourly Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 2636, changed : +41 points, volume : moderate.
Bollinger band reading : side way with slightly bullish biased.
MACD Histrogram : getting stronger, short covering and buyer returned.
Support : 2620, 2590, 2570 level.
Resistant : 2650, 2670, 2720 level.
Comment :
Higher soy oil futures price and short covering leads crude palm oil futures to opened and traded stronger with better volume. Price also managed to break throught and stay above the 2620 resistant turned support level. Hourly chart outlook has just turned to a better positive sentiment reading but has yet to turned bullish convincingly. Expect market to trade side way range bound with a little upside biased and testing of support level.

20100301 1054 Malaysia Corporate News.

Alliance Bank Malaysia's CEO Datuk Bridget Lai will leave the company on 1 Apr, effectively putting an end to a board room saga that has lasted for over two months. Lai and the bank said in a joint press statement that they have arrived at an amicable settlement of their ongoing dispute.
  • "In view of the differences of opinion between the board of directors and Lai that have arisen over the last few months, Lai has decided to tender her resignation. This is a joint decision ... and the resignation is not in any way a reflection of Lai," the statement read. Talks are that a candidate to replace Datuk Bridget will come from Singapore's state investment firm Temasek Holdings or DBS bank. (BT) 
The resignation of the CEO does not entirely come as a surprise to us as we see this as a possibility since the beginning of the internal probe. Now, the focus of the board of directors would be on scouting for a successor for Datuk Bridget. We view the change in management negatively as this could slow down the growth momentum in the near term. Furthermore, the new CEO may alter the strategic plans for the group, which could involve the refocusing of the group’s resources in a new direction.

Sarawak has not decided yet on the electricity tariffs for Sarawak Corridor of Renewable Energy (Score), said Second Planning and Resource Management Minister, Datuk Amar Awang Tengah Ali Hassan. "The tariffs will only be decided after a thorough discussion with the federal government," he added. (Bernama)

The RM1bn Kuala Lumpur-Kuala Selangor Expressway (KLS) project, set to open in Jun-11, will benefit several housing and industrial projects in Selangor, says Chairman Datuk Mohamad Razali Othman. Projects and towns that may benefit from KLS include Kundang Jaya Industrial Park, Bandar Baru Kundang, Ijok, Bandar Tasik Puteri, Rawang and Sg Buloh.
  • KLS is a 33km two-lane dual carriageway with five interchanges, three toll plazas as well as a rest and service area, connecting Assam Jawa near Kua-la Selangor to Templer's Park near Rawang.
  • The highway will cut travelling time from Kuala Lumpur to Kuala Selangor and vice versa, to just 30 minutes from two hours currently. The 40-year concession is owned by equal JV between Bina Puri Holdings and privateley held Arena Irama S/B. (BT)
Sime Darby sees crude palm oil (CPO) prices hovering between RM2,000 and RM2,200 per tonne for the next six months. The outlook for its plantation business, which accounted for the bulk of its earnings, is expected to be "positive" given that "market fundamentals remain favourable" to CPO prices. (Malaysian Reserve)

Indian mobile phone users will finally be able to access advanced data transfer and highspeed Internet on their handsets through 3G and broadband wireless access (BWA) post Sept 2010. The department of Telecom has set Sept as the timeline when successful bidders will be allowed to use the alloted airwaves for commercial operations.
  • The government has issued notice inviting bids from private telcos in the auction of 3G airwaves, allowing three private players each in 17 circles and four in the remaining five circles including Punjab, West Bengal and Bihar. The government has now released a definite timeline for auctions. 
  • The last date of submissions for applications is Mar 19. The mock auction will take place on Apr 5 and 6, which will be followed by 3G auction on Apr 9, 2010. The successful bidders would be required to cover at least 90% of the service area with 3G technology within five years from the date they start 3G services. (Economic Times of India)
Prime Minister's Information Technology Advisor, Sam Pitroda, today said that the Indian Government expects to complete the 3G auction within the next two months, enabling operators to roll-out their services soon.
  • "This (the 3G auction) will be completed within the next 60 days. The operators would start offering the service in this calendar year itself," Pitroda told reporters on the sidelines of a conference here. Noting that the auction process is "already delayed", Pitroda said the Government wanted to complete the spectrum sale as soon as possible. " 
  • The auction is already delayed but it will be completed soon...there is no question of any kind of uncertainty (in the auction process)," Pitroda said. (Economic Times of India)
Volkswagen Group Malaysia (VGM) and its newest dealer, Permaju Industries, have pledged to bring a new level of experience to owners of Volkswagen vehicles. Permaju, through wholly-owned Cergaz Autohaus, is set to open its first VW dedicated 3S (sales, service and spare parts) centre in Taman Tun Dr Ismail (TTDI), Kuala Lumpur, by the end of this month.
  • Cergaz Autohaus has set aside a budget of RM20m for the new venture to sell and service the likes of the Passat, Scirocco, Polo, Touareg, Tiguan and Golf GTi. A bodyand- paint shop will be set up at the TTDI centre in due course, senior executives of VGM and Cergaz Autohaus said. (BT)

Deutsche Bank has received an international Islamic banking licence from Bank Negara. This makes it the third bank to obtain the licence since the Malaysian Islamic Finance Centre offered such a licence in 2006. (Financial Daily)

KKB Engineering is investing RM20m in a new steel fabrication plant to double its annual capacity to 30,000 tonnes in 1H11. Group executive director Kho Pok Tong said the proposed plant at Muara Tebas near here would have direct access to Sungai Sarawak.
  • The project will incorporate jetty facilities for efficient logistical deployment of fabricated steel structures and related products. Kho said the company’s existing steel fabrication activities at Bintawa Industrial Estate would be relocated to the new plant, which is geared to cope with rising demand and future requirements. (Starbiz)
PJ Development Holdings (PJD) said the Securities Commission (SC) has approved the listing of its wholly-owned subsidiary OCC Cables (OCB) on the main market of Bursa Malaysia subject to certain conditions. (Malaysian Reserve)

ECS ICT, an e-commerce systems and solutions provider, is targeting proceeds of RM39.42m from its proposed flotation en route to a listing on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia. The MSC company plans to issue 27m new ordinary shares of 50 sen at RM1.46 each and offer for sale 20m shares, according to its draft prospectus. (Financial Daily)

20100301 1046 Malaysian Economic News.

Buoyed by the 4.5% growth in 4Q09, the Government sees a 6.0% growth for this year. Second Finance Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Husni Hanadzlah said while the Government had targeted a 5.0% growth for 2010, the 4.5% growth from 4Q09 had given the country's economy great encouragement and confidence.
  • "We have studied the projections made by various bodies particularly those from the banking sector and some believe we can even achieve 7.0% growth," he said. “But we will target 6.0%," he added. (The Star)
Malaysia is keen to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) but only after consultations and based on certain parameters, said International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed. "We are keen to come on board subject to consultations and certain parameters. The consultation is being held now," he said. (Bernama)

Asean is on track to liberalise another 15 services sub-sectors in health, telecommunications and tourism under the 8th Package of the Asean Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) on Services. The 10-member regional grouping will also improve the offers in 65 sub-sectors under the 7th Package of the agreement which came into effect on 1 Jan this year.
  • Under the improved packages, companies in the Asean region can take up 70.0% equity in companies in the liberalised sub-sector in member countries, said International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed. Overall, Asean plans to liberalise a total of 128 services sub-sectors under 11 packages by 2015, when it is expected to create the Asean Economic Community. (Bernama)
Malaysia must not stop talking to important customer nations like Europe to deal with issues that could hurt trade, said former international trade and industry minister Tan Sri Rafidah Aziz. Palm oil is one example where the industry is being criticised for its production methods and its lack of transparency, giving rise to accusations of environment abuse. "Once you stop communicating, they will find other markets and other sources," she said. (BT)

There has been a marked increase in investor confidence among local and foreign investors to invest in various economic sectors in Malaysia since early this year, says Deputy Minister of International Trade and Industry Datuk Mukhriz Mahathir. The investors' keen interest was a positive development, signifying that the country's economy was well on the recovery path, he said. (Bernama)

Foreign firms
wanting to expand their global reach and intending to penetrate the Asean market should make use of Malaysia as the "gateway" for their investment, says Former International Trade and Industry Minister Tan Sri Rafidah Aziz.
  • With the approach of the Asean Economic Community (AEC) or single market in 2015 and implementation of the Asean Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) on Jan 1, 2010, goods and services tariff are well in place, which means "we can tell the world that Malaysia has a big tariff free market. For Malaysia, our biggest trading partner now is Asean as a group, which means we do a lot of business with Asean. The business link, logistics link and trading links are already there, so use us as the gateway to the bigger Asean market," she said. (Bernama)
Building a new economic model will need national efforts as no government, even a strong and united one, can build it alone, says the Director-general of Public Service Department (PSD) Tan Sri Ismail Adam. The Public Service Department (PSD) has taken great efforts to ensure the success of the new economic model (NEM) by hiring those with high-level thinking and knowledge, Ismail said.
  • "For the new economic model to be successful, it must be a combination of efforts from the private sector, the community at large and the public sector that is the public servant," he said. (Bernama)

20100301 1042 Global Economic News.

US 4Q real GDP revision was +0.2% pt to +5.9%, reflecting more inventories and business software investment. Key real final sales weakened a bit to +1.9% but are still in an uptrend from a weak 1H09. Even more of the growth than in the initial estimate was from inventories. Inventories added 3.88 pts to the latest 4Q growth estimate. (Xinhua)

US sales of existing single-family homes, town homes, condominiums and cooperatives dropped 7.2% in January, the second month of unexpectedly large decline, but a new tax credit bounce later is still expected, the National Association of Realtors reported. The January result was the second largest sales drop on record after January turned out to be the largest but was still 11.5% above a year earlier. The national median price slipped 3.4% from December to $164,700 but was unchanged from a year ago. (Xinhua)

The US Treasury said China holds US$139.4bn more US Treasuries than previously counted, to reach a new total of US$894.8bn, again the largest such holder. Japan holds an estimated US$765.7bn. The UK's holdings were made US$124.4bn smaller, at US$178bn. Caribbean US Treasury holdings were US$56.5bn less, at US$128.2bn. (Xinhua)

Business activity in the US expanded in February at the fastest pace since 2005, a private report showed. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said that its business barometer climbed to 62.6 from 61.5 last month. Economists projected the Chicago index would drop to 59.7. (Bloomberg)

Confidence among US consumers declined as job prospects dimmed. The Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment for February fell to 73.6 from 74.4 in January. The final February figure compares with the preliminary reading of 73.7 released on Feb. 12. The index of expectations six months from now, which projects the direction of consumer spending, dropped to 68.4 from 70.1 in January. The preliminary February reading was 66.9. (Bloomberg)

Europe’s economic recovery may fail to gather strength for most of 2010 as governments phase out stimulus measures and domestic demand remains “subdued,” the European Commission said. Gross domestic product in the 16-member euro region may rise 0.2% in the first, second and third quarters before increasing 0.3% in the last quarter, the Brusselsbased commission said. European domestic demand remains weak and it’s not yet clear to what extent the euro region will benefit from a global recovery, the commission said. (Bloomberg)

European confidence in the economic outlook unexpectedly worsened in February after the euro region’s recovery almost stalled in 4Q09. An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 16 nations using the euro slipped to 95.9 from a revised 96.0 in January. Economists projected it would expand to 96.4 in February. (Bloomberg)

European inflation accelerated by 1.0% yoy in January (0.9% in Dec 09), marking the fastest in almost a year led by surging energy costs. That’s in line with an initial estimate published on 29 Jan and median estimate. (Bloomberg)

UK’s gross domestic product rose 0.3% qoq in 4Q09, compared with a previous calculation of 0.1% growth. The median forecast was for a 0.2% increase. (Bloomberg)

Japan’s consumer prices fell for an 11th month in January, putting renewed pressure on policy makers to eradicate deflation that hampers the recovery. Prices excluding fresh food slid 1.8% yoy in January (-2.0% in Dec 09).Economists projected it would decline by 2.0% yoy in January. (Bloomberg)

Japan’s factory output rose 2.5% mom in January (1.9% in Dec 09), the 11th straight gain and the longest streak in more than 12 years. It rose more than the 1.0% median estimate. (Bloomberg)

Japan’s retail sales unexpectedly jumped 2.6% yoy in January (-0.2% in Dec 09). The gain in retail sales was the biggest in almost two years, confounding analysts’ median projection for a 0.2% drop. (Bloomberg)

Hong Kong’s exports jumped 18.4% yoy to HK$222.3bn in January (9.2% in Dec 09), the biggest gain since 2006, after falling the most in half a century in Jan 09. While imports rose 39.5% yoy (18.7% in Dec 09) leaving a trade deficit of HK$29.5bn in January (- HK$33.4bn in Dec 09).
  • This number was distorted by the timing of a Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, held in January last year and February in 2010. Economists forecast both exports and imports would rise by 21.2% and 34.5% respectively in January. (Bloomberg)
Singapore’s industrial production rose 39.4% yoy in January (14.6% in Dec 09) as manufacturers ramped up output of electronics and pharmaceuticals to meet rising demand. Economists projected for a 19.3% gain. (Bloomberg)

Singapore’s visitor arrivals registered a 17.6% yoy rise to 908,000 in January. This was the highest recorded visitor arrivals in January, according to the Singapore Tourism Board (STB).The top five visitor-generating markets were Indonesia with 173,000 visitors, China (99,000), Australia (90,000), Malaysia (68,000), and India (57,000), which in total accounted 54% of total tourist arrivals. Hotel room revenue grew 8.5% yoy to reach an estimated S$137m in January. (Bernama)

Thailand’s manufacturing production rose 28.6% yoy for a fifth straight month in January (35.9% in Dec 09) as the global economic recovery helped boost demand for automotive parts and electronics. The median estimate was for a 36% yoy increase. Thailand’s exports increased 31.4% yoy in January (26.2% in Dec 09), marking the biggest gain in 18 months. Imports rose 50.1% yoy in January (33.0% in Dec 09), resulting in a trade surplus of THB591m (-THB122m in Dec 09). (Bloomberg)

India’s government set a target of becoming the world’s fastest-growing economy within four years, counting on an expanding pool of savings to help finance the nation’s development. India’s growth rate will accelerate to 8.2% in the financial year beginning 1 Apr, a government report showed. (Bloomberg)

India’s expansion slowed in 4Q09, reflecting a poor monsoon rainfall that hurt farm output. Gross domestic product grew 6.0% yoy (7.9% in 3Q09). The government forecasts growth to quicken to 7.2% in the year to March. (Bloomberg)

India’s government pledged to shrink its budget deficit by more than 1.0 -pt of GDP this year from the highest level since 1994. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, presenting the annual budget to parliament, said he plans to narrow the gap to 5.5% of GDP in the year starting 1 Apr from 6.9 % the previous year. He also said economic growth may reach 10.0% in the “not-too-distant future.” (Bloomberg)

Banks have pared their reliance on central banks and governments for liquidity support as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression ebbs, according to a study by the Bank for International Settlements. “The take up of many measures has declined,” economist Petra Gerlach wrote in the study. The report comes as central banks such as the US Federal Reserve trim some of the emergency programs they introduced to combat the crisis. (Bloomberg)

European Union Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn will likely push Greece to do more to cut its budget deficit as governments craft a possible rescue package for Greece. Euro-area officials are devising a plan to grant Greece about €25bn (US$34bn) in aid should it need help financing its debt. (Bloomberg)

Thailand's Supreme Court ruled Friday that fugitive former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra had abused his power for personal gain and should be stripped of THB46bn or US$1.4bn of his frozen US$2.3bn fortune. The decision appeared designed to strike a balance between competing camps by leaving some of his fortune untouched. (LA Times)