Thursday, January 19, 2012

20120119 1806 FCPO EOD Daily Chart Study.

FCPO closed : 3157, changed : -23 points, volume : lower.
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : resume falling, buyer seller battling.
Support : 3150, 3100, 3070, 3050 level.
Resistance : 3200, 3250, 3270, 3300 level.
Comment :
FCPO closed recorded loss with reducing volume traded. Soy oil price currently trading higher after overnight closed recorded loss while crude oil price also registering gain.
Price traded lower through out the day after MPOB official forecast higher output for this year due to replanting activities 2-3 years ago.
Chart reading still suggesting a correction range bound upside biased market development testing resistance near middle Bollinger band level.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistant or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20120119 1733 FKLI EOD Daily Chart Study.

FKLI closed : 1522, changed : +5.5 points, volume : higher.
Bollinger band reading : correction range bound upside biased.
MACD Histrogram : falling lower, seller testing market.
Support : 1515, 1505, 1500, 1494 level.
Resistance : 1530, 1540, 1550, 1565 level.
Comment :
FKLI closed recorded loss with improved but relatively quiet volume participation doing 5 points premium compare to cash market that closed marginally lower. Overnight U.S. market closed recorded gain and today Asia markets ended higher while European markets also registering gain.
Global market traded in positive tone on hope that China will take measure to ease monetary policy and ahead of Spain and France bonds auction.
Chart study still suggesting a correction range bound upside biased market development with immediate support near middle Bollinger band.
When to buy : buy at support or weakness with quick cut loss and profit target.
When to sell : sell at resistance or strength with quick cut loss and profit target.

20120119 1706 Regional Markets EOD Daily Chart Study.

 DJIA chart reading :  upside biased.
 Hang Seng chart reading : upside biased with possible pullback.
KLCI chart reading : correction range bound upside biased.

20120119 1634 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

Asian shares hit 2-month highs as mood positive
TOKYO, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Asian shares rose to a two-month high and the euro firmed after news that the International Monetary Fund was seeking to boost its resources to tackle the euro zone debt  crisis helped ease worries about Europe's funding difficulties.
"Global growth environment may be not great but it is not disastrous either. Equities are pricing in a pretty bad environment, but the environment is not as bad as the prices suggest," he said.

FOREX-Euro tests upside as short-covering continues
TOKYO, Jan 19 (Reuters) - The euro pushed higher in Asia after overnight news that the International Monetary Fund wants to bolster its war chest to help tackle the euro zone debt crisis, but downbeat Australian jobs data rained on the Aussie's parade.
"The euro could target 90 yen within this year, but for now, everyone is underweight euro and covers short positions whenever there is good news about Europe," said Citibank Japan's chief foreign exchange strategist Osamu Takashima.

Corn, wheat rise from 1-month low; IMF move supports
SINGAPORE, Jan 19 (Reuters) - U.S. corn and wheat edged up, recouping some of last session's losses as an improved risk appetite following a move by the International Monetary Fund to tackle the European debt crisis lifted global markets.
"Corn and wheat are slightly higher today as the markets are tracking stronger crude oil prices and impressive data from the United States last night," said Ker Chung Yang at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

Malaysia's 2012 palm oil output seen up 2.3 pct-MPOB
KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Malaysia's 2012 palm oil production is expected to rise 2.3 percent to 19.3 million tonnes from 18.9 million tonnes the previous year as more estates come into maturity, an official from the country's industry regulator said on Thursday.
Malaysian Palm Oil Board official Ramli Abdullah said the impact of an aggressive replanting campaign in 2008 and 2009 will boost production as young oil palm trees reach maturity.

Brazil cocoa arrivals lag last season's by 15 pct
Jan 18 (Reuters) - Cocoa arrivals from Brazil's main producing state Bahia continued their seasonal decline in the last week, but were still above average for the time of year, data from Bahia Commercial Association showed.
Arrivals from other states shot up more than half in the last week, however, as producers sold some accumulated stocks, Bahia-based cocoa analyst Thomas Hartmann said. That may have been prompted by a sharp rise in farm gate prices last week.

Uganda duty-free sugar imports hurt sector -producers
KAMPALA, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Uganda's sugar producers said on Wednesday that mountains of unsold sugar had built up in the past three months after the government gave a temporary green light to imports of duty-free sugar designed to plug a supply deficit.
Wilberforce Mubiru of the Uganda Sugarcane Technologists Association (USCTA) said 12.5 percent of last year's estimated total output remained unsold.  

Ukraine to boost maize output in 2012
KIEV, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Ukraine wants to increase its area under maize by 700,000 hectares in 2012, targeting a total area of 4.3 million hectares, Farm Minister Mykola Prysyazhnyuk said on Wednesday.
"We will be recommending increasing the area under maize by 700,000 hectares. This will be compensation for the loss of winter grain," he told journalists.

Brent rises above $111 on stocks draw, demand recovery
SINGAPORE, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Brent crude rose above $111 on a surprise draw in U.S. oil stocks and hopes of a recovery in demand as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sought to boost its resources to help countries grapple with the euro zone crisis.
"For oil, the demand side is very positive, as we can see from the recent set of data. The United States is recovering steadily while Asian demand grows," said Tetsu Emori, a fund manager with Astramax Co. in Tokyo. "The supply side is worrying because of the tensions in Iran and very limited spare production capacity elsewhere.

Oil demand falling as recession fears mount-IEA
LONDON, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Oil demand is falling for the first time since the global economic crisis of 2008-2009, the International Energy Agency said, warning that mild weather, high oil prices and a rising likelihood of a global recession will depress demand in 2012.
Although worries about disruptions to Iranian oil exports have supported prices, consumption fell in the last quarter of 2011 year-on-year due to mild winter weather in the northern hemisphere and the overriding fears about an impending recession in the euro zone, the IEA said in its monthly report on Wednesday.

LME copper climbs to four-month high on IMF plan
KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 19 (Reuters) - London copper climbed to a four-month high, with trading boosted by news that the International Monetary Fund was seeking to raise money to tackle the euro zone debt crisis which has weighed down financial markets for months.
"The positive sentiments are back in the market," said Ker Chung Yang, an investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

Gold up for 4th day on IMF funding hopes
SINGAPORE, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Spot gold edged higher , on course for a fourth session of gains, supported by hopes of increased funding from the International Monetary Fund to help tackle the euro zone debt crisis.
"The IMF funding talks are giving some support to metals," said Peter Fung, head of dealing at Wing Fung Precious Metals in Hong Kong. "The market is also supported by fresh buying of some funds and physical demand.

China's banks lure man on the street to gold
SINGAPORE, Jan 19 (Reuters) - For Chinese shipping executive Ping Bo buying gold is the best way to protect his family's wealth and give his 10-year-old son a headstart into adulthood.
"For my son, the idea is that he will get a nice stash of gold that he can cash out when he turns 21 or when he gets married," said Ping, one of over 2 million people that have opened accounts in the past two years to accumulate gold at the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC).

METALS-LME copper climbs to four-month high on IMF plan
KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 19 (Reuters) - London copper climbed to a four-month high with trading boosted by news that the International Monetary Fund was seeking to raise money to tackle the euro zone debt crisis which has weighed down financial markets for months.
"The positive sentiments are back in the market," said Ker Chung Yang, an investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

PRECIOUS-Gold up for 4th day on IMF funding hopes
SINGAPORE, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Spot gold edged higher on course for a fourth session of gains, supported by hopes of increased funding from the International Monetary Fund to help tackle the euro zone debt crisis.
"The IMF funding talks are giving some support to metals," said Peter Fung, head of dealing at Wing Fung Precious Metals in Hong Kong. "The market is also supported by fresh buying of some funds and physical demand."

20120119 1146 Global Market & Commodities Related News.

GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian shares hit 2-month highs on IMF hopes
TOKYO, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Asian shares rose to a two-month high and the euro firmed on Thursday after news that the International Monetary Fund was seeking to boost its resources to tackle the euro zone debt  crisis helped to ease worries about Europe's funding difficulties.

China Developers Ease Home Sales (Bloomberg)
China’s biggest developers slowed home sales toward the end of 2011, bracing for the worst property market in three years as the government vows to keep real-estate curbs. Contract sales, or sales booked before apartments are completed, dropped 30 percent last month at China Vanke Co. (000002), as the country’s biggest developer by market value offered fewer homes from November. Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd. (3333), the second-biggest Chinese developer by revenue, said sales in November and December were the lowest for the year. Developers are looking for ways to preserve record sales last year as the impact of purchase limits and tighter mortgage requirements imposed by the government spreads. China’s home transactions will fall 10 percent this year, according to Daiwa Securities Capital Markets, while UBS AG says the curbs may boost supply to the highest in a decade.

COMMODITIES-Gold, copper end up on possible IMF help
NEW YORK, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Many commodities fell or posted only modest gains on Wednesday, as concerns about Europe's financial woes ahead of Greek debt-restructuring talks overshadowed data indicating U.S. economic strength.
"We could be right back to asset-allocation type selling in a fairly short order," said Frank McGhee, head precious metals trader at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC.

Oil falls as weak demand outlook trumps IMF hopes
NEW YORK, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Brent crude oil futures dropped back on Wednesday as a weak demand outlook overshadowed hopes the International Monetary Fund would be able to raise more money to help resolve Europe's debt crisis.
"NYMEX crude pulled back on that news, but U.S. crude futures have also fallen as it is testing support around $100, after rising on concerns about disruption of supply from Iran," said Chris Dillman, analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.

Warm winter cuts oil demand 300,000-400,000 bpd
LONDON/NEW YORK Jan 18 (Reuters) - Frost has not lasted long on the ground this winter, and heating oil demand in the United States and Europe has also been melting away.              
The unseasonably warm winter in most parts of the Northern Hemisphere has cut at least 300,000 barrels per day from global oil consumption since November, according to the latest analyst estimates, likely stopping oil prices of more than $100 a barrel from climbing even higher.  

NYMEX-Natural gas ends down slightly in 7th straight loss
NEW YORK, Jan 18 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures took a modest breather after Tuesday's steep slide but still ended down slightly on Wednesday for a seventh day, pressured by mild extended weather forecasts and record high supplies despite a brief cold snap this week.
"The upcoming inventory withdrawals are likely to continue to underperform for the foreseeable future ... unless of course real winter weather shows up and stays around for an extended period of time," Energy Management Institute's Dominick Chirichella said in a report.

Euro Coal-Prices make modest gains
LONDON, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Prompt physical coal prices rose by up to 75 cents a tonne on Wednesday, helped by light buying interest, with South African cargoes seen supported for now.  
"We've seen some interest on both the physical and paper side, which has kept things firm and it's up between 50 and 75 cents today," one trader said, referring to swaps trading.

20120119 0946 Local & Global Economic Related News.

Malaysia: Inflation slows
Malaysia's inflation slowed to a nine-month low in December, with consumer prices rising 3% from a year earlier after climbing 3.3% in November. This could give the central bank scope to leave interest rates unchanged for a fourth meeting this month to support growth as the world economy falters. (Bloomberg)

China: Said to let biggest banks boost lending by 5% this quarter
China’s central bank is said to be allowing a limited increase in first-quarter lending by the nation’s five biggest banks to support growth as the economy's expansion moderates. The lenders can increase new loans by a maximum of about 5% from a year earlier, according to two people at state lenders who have knowledge of the matter. The central bank won’t comment on anything related to credit quotas, a press official said in Beijing yesterday. (Bloomberg)

Greece: Debt talks resume with agreement seen by end of this week
Greece’s government heads into a second day of talks with private creditors in a push to reach an accord that would slash the nation’s debt and avert a collapse of the economy. Discussions with officials from the Institute of International Finance, which represents bondholders, will continue today, Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said. (Bloomberg)

France: Sarkozy promises USD550m to fight ‘worsening’ unemployment
French President Nicolas Sarkozy unveiled USD550m of measures to promote job creation and said he’ll make more structural proposals later this month. The measures include more retraining, reduced charges for small companies hiring young workers and 1,000 new employees for job centers. (Bloomberg)

UK: Unemployment increases as global outlook cut
UK unemployment rose to the highest rate in 16 years in the quarter through November, deepening concerns Britain is heading for another recession as turmoil in the euro area damps the global economic outlook. The unemployment rate rose to 8.4%, the highest since January 1996, from 8.1% in the three months through August. The number of people claiming jobless benefits rose for a 10th month to 1.6m, the most since January 2010. (Bloomberg)

Germany: Cuts 2012 economic growth outlook as crisis dims exports
The German government cut its forecast for economic expansion this year as the debt crisis dims the outlook for sustaining record exports, leaving domestic demand as the main motor for growth. Europe’s biggest economy will grow 0.7% in 2012, less than the 1% estimated in October. (Bloomberg)

US: Factory production climbs by most in a year
Factories in the US churned out more computers, cars and construction material in December as manufacturing remained at the center of the expansion. Output climbed 0.9% last month, the biggest gain since December 2010, according to Federal Reserve data. (Bloomberg)

Global: IMF seeks to raise lending capacity by up to USD500bn
IMF is proposing to raise its lending capacity by as much as USD500bn to insulate the global economy against any worsening of Europe’s debt crisis. The Washington-based lender is aiming to increase its resources after identifying a potential need for USD1trn in financing in coming years, an IMF spokesman said. (Bloomberg)

20120119 0945 Malaysia Corporate Related News.

Khazanah makes ‘modest’ gain
Khazanah Nasional will book a modest divestment gain from selling its 42.7% stake in Proton Holdings for RM5.50 per share, or a total cash consideration of RM1.29bn. Speaking to the media during Khazanah’s annual review, MD Tan Sri Azman maintained that Khazanah’s entry cost into Proton in 2002 was lower than RM8 as reported. Azman, however, declined to disclose Khazanah’s investment cost in Proton or the expected divestment gain from the transaction, only saying that the RM5.50 per share price tag was slightly higher than Khazanah’s holding cost. (Financial Daily)

DRB-HICOM keeps options open on Lotus
Automobile assembler DRB-HICOM said yesterday it will keep its options open for selling Proton’s sports car unit Lotus, while ruling out an equity sale of Proton. MD Datuk Seri Mohd Khamil said the company will meet with the Lotus management as soon as possible and conduct due diligence before making a decision. “I’m open to options, whether to move up or move forward on Lotus. We have to sit with the Lotus management and look at their plans before making any decisions. “I’m not looking to sell at this moment until I see the company,” he said at a media briefing here yesterday. On another note, he also denied talk that the company is selling assets, borrowing from foreign banks amd using billionaire Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar’s influence to finance yhe purchase Proton Holdings shares. (Financial Daily)

CI on the lookout for weak companies
CI Holdings group managing director Datuk Johari Abdul Ghani said CI Holdings Bhd's next acquisition target is one where management is weak and has limited abilities to raise funds. Size does not matter, and the acquisition target could even be a small company. “I turn companies around and bring them to the next level. It is not about the sector. I like companies with weak management, meaning that the existing management cannot convince bankers that they can grow.’’ “Secondly, these companies have a limited capacity to raise cash because of the background of the shareholder of whatever reason. And thirdly, this company finds it hard to attract talent,” Johari told StarBiz after the company's EGM. He said he has a few proposals on his table and was in the process of evaluating them. (StarBiz)

MAS appoints senior officials
Malaysian Airline System Bhd has appointed Shane Nolan interim commercial director and Al-Ishsal Ishak senior vice president for marketing and promotions effective on 16 Jan. The group also appointed Dr Hugh Dunleavy as executive vice president, network, alliance, strategy and planning; and Shihaj Kutty as senior vice president, revenue management last month. Malaysia Airlines CEO Ahmad Jauhari said in a statement yesterday, “On behalf of the management team, I am extremely pleased to welcome Dr Dunleavy, Shihaj, Ishsal and Shane to Malaysia Airlines. We believe that their professional experience and inputs will be valuable for our efforts to successfully implement the business plan towards the profitability for our group.” (StarBiz)

XiDeLang proposes private placement, bonus and rights issue
China-based sports shoe and apparel maker XiDeLang Holdings is hoping to raise RM29.7m via a proposed private placement, bonus issue and rights issue of warrants. In a filing with Bursa Malaysia, XiDeLang said it is proposing a private placement of up to 43.99m new shares to be placed with independent third party investors to be identified at a later date. It is also proposing a 1-for-2 renounceable rights issue of up to 43.99m new shares. The private placement and rights issue are expected to raise up to RM29.7m, which would mainly be utilized to purchase machinery and equipment for its new design and production centre. (Financial Daily)

HELP International invests RM20m
HELP International Corporation is set to invest RM20m to establish HELP International School in Subang. It said the school would be built on a 2.8ha site and would cater for more than 3,000 students, with the first phase to open in September 2013, with an initial intake of 500 to 600 students. “We aim to make this school a model school and will look at other opportunities to expand within Malaysia and overseas,” it said in a filing with Bursa Malaysia. (StarBiz)

Brahim: Invited to buy into refined sugar producer. Brahim's Holdings Bhd (BHB) says it has received an invitation to take up to 60% equity interest in Admuda Sdn Bhd for a consideration of up to RM20m. Admuda holds a licence from the International Trade and Industry Ministry to operate as a licensed manufacturer of refined sugar and molasses in East Malaysia. (Source: Bursa Malaysia)

20120119 0929 Global Market Related News.

Asia Stocks Rise on U.S. Confidence (Source: Bloomberg)
Asian stocks rose for a third day after confidence among U.S. homebuilders beat estimates and the International Monetary Fund said it plans to expand its lending resources to counter Europe’s debt crisis. Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), the world’s biggest carmaker by market value, advanced 1 percent. Komatsu Ltd. (6301), Japan’s largest construction machinery maker that generates 23 percent of its revenue in China, rose 2.4 percent on speculation China may relax capital requirements for lenders. Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation’s No. 1 lender by market value, climbed 0.6 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reported profit that exceeded analysts’ estimates. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.6 percent to 118.93 as of 9:13 a.m. in Tokyo, with more than three stocks gaining for each that fell. The measure is headed for the highest close since Nov. 9.

S&P 500 Caps Best Start to Year Since 1987 on Economic Optimism (Source: Bloomberg)
U.S. stocks rose, giving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index its best start to a year since 1987, after confidence among homebuilders topped forecasts, Goldman Sachs (GS) Group Inc. rallied and concern about Europe eased. Goldman Sachs climbed 6.8 percent as earnings beat estimates amid lower compensation costs. Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and JPMorgan (JPM) Chase & Co. jumped at least 4.6 percent, leading the gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. PulteGroup Inc. (PHM) and Lennar Corp. added more than 4.3 percent, pacing an advance in homebuilders. A measure of chipmakers rose the most in the S&P 500 among 24 industries, rallying 3.9 percent. The S&P 500 increased 1.1 percent to 1,308.04 at 4 p.m. New York time, closing above 1,300 for the first time since July. The Dow advanced 96.88 points, or 0.8 percent, to 12,578.95. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 1.5 percent to 2,769.71. The Russell 2000 Index jumped 1.8 percent to 779.26.

Euro debt fears pressure euro, shares retreat
LONDON, Jan 18 (Reuters) - The euro came off its recent highs and European shares started lower with investors nervous about Greek bond talks and government debt sales, a day after economic data had raised hopes the global economy wouldn't slowdown
as much as feared.
"Greek bond negotiations could trigger more euro weakness as they have to close a deal soon, before Greek debt repayments are
due in March, Richard Falkenhall, currency strategist at SEB in Stockholm said.

Most European Stocks Gain as IMF Seeks Boost to Resources; Accor Advances (Source: Bloomberg)
Most European stocks rose as the International Monetary Fund said it plans to raise as much as $500 billion to expand its lending resources and Greece neared a debt deal with its private creditors. Accor SA advanced 4.3 percent as the French hotelier said sales increased in 2011 and confirmed its profit forecast. Commerzbank AG (CBK) declined 1.7 percent as Moody’s Investors Services lowered the financial-strength rating of Germany’s second-biggest lender. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained less than 0.1 percent to 253.48 at the close of trading, extending a five-month high. More than three shares climbed for every two that dropped. The benchmark gauge has increased 3.7 percent so far this year.

Japanese Stocks Advance on U.S. Homebuilder Confidence, IMF Resource Boost (Source: Bloomberg)
Japanese shares rose, with the Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average heading toward its highest close in more than a month, after confidence among U.S. homebuilders topped estimates and the International Monetary Fund said it plans to expand its lending resources to counter Europe’s debt crisis. Canon Inc. (7751), a Japanese camera maker that gets more than 80 percent of its revenue overseas, gained 1.1 percent. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. (8306), Japan’s top publicly traded bank, rose 1.5 percent after profit at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. exceeded analysts’ expectations. Komatsu Ltd. (6301), a construction machinery maker that generates 23 percent of its sales in China, climbed 2.3 percent on speculation capital requirements for mainland lenders may be relaxed. The Nikkei 225 rose 0.9 percent to 8,622.98 as of 9:17 a.m. in Tokyo, set for its highest close since Dec. 12. The broader Topix (MXAP) Index climbed 0.7 percent to 740.36, with about five stocks rising for every two that fell.

Emerging Stocks Head for Two-Month High (Source: Bloomberg)
Emerging-market stocks rose to a two-month high on speculation Greece is nearing a deal to renegotiate its debt. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) climbed 0.9 percent to 980.93 at the close of trading in New York, the highest since Nov. 8. The Shanghai Composite index lost 1.4 percent after rallying the most since October 2009 yesterday. Hungary’s BUX Index (BUX) advanced for a fifth day, the longest streak of gains in a year. Brazil’s Bovespa added 1.8 percent. The Greek government may reach a deal with private creditors to write down some of its debt by the end of this week, a Finance Ministry official who asked not to be identified told reporters in Athens. The International Monetary Fund is proposing to raise its lending capacity by $500 billion to insulate the global economy against any worsening of Europe’s debt crisis, according to a person familiar with the discussions.

World Bank Cuts Global Growth Forecast as Euro Region Contracts: Economy (Source: Bloomberg)
The World Bank cut its global growth forecast by the most in three years, saying that a recession in the euro region threatens to exacerbate a slowdown in emerging markets such as India and Mexico. The world economy will grow 2.5 percent this year, down from a June estimate of 3.6 percent, the Washington-based institution said. The euro area may contract 0.3 percent, compared with a previous estimate of a 1.8 percent gain. The U.S. growth outlook was cut to 2.2 percent from 2.9 percent. “Even achieving these much weaker outturns is very uncertain,” the World Bank said in its Global Economic Prospects report released today in Asia and yesterday in the U.S. “The downturn in Europe and weaker growth in developing countries raises the risk that the two developments reinforce one another, resulting in an even weaker outcome.”

Factory Production in U.S. Climbed by Most in a Year Last Month: Economy (Source: Bloomberg)
Factories in the U.S. churned out more computers, cars and construction material in December as manufacturing remained at the center of the expansion. Output (IPMGCHNG) climbed 0.9 percent last month, the biggest gain since December 2010, according to Federal Reserve data issued today in Washington. Other reports showed homebuilder confidence jumped and wholesale prices unexpectedly dropped. Gains in consumer and business spending, combined with lean inventories, may prompt factories to continue to boost payrolls and hours, bolstering economic growth. Additionally, more demand from emerging markets may help shield American industry from a slowdown in exports to Europe as the region’s financial crisis and a weaker euro threaten to restrain sales.

U.S. Wholesale Prices Decreased in December (Source: Bloomberg)
Wholesale prices in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped in December, consistent with the Federal Reserve’s assessment that inflation remains tame. The producer price index fell 0.1 percent, the second decrease in the past three months, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Economists projected a 0.1 percent gain, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The core measure excluding volatile food and energy rose 0.3 percent as the cost of light trucks climbed. Cooling global demand, which has reduced the cost of commodities and hurt profits at companies like aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. (AA), signals price pressures may dissipate. Less inflation offers Fed officials room for more policy steps should they need to boost the world’s largest economy.

Fed Officials Open to Additional Easing as They Monitor Risks to Economy (Source: Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve officials are staying open to further monetary easing this year as they monitor risks that threaten to move the economy further away from their mandate for stable prices and full employment. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart told reporters Jan. 9 that he hadn’t closed out “the option” for more stimulus, while New York Fed President William C. Dudley said in a Jan. 6 speech that it’s “appropriate” to evaluate whether the Fed could do more to boost growth. Both are voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee. Among the possible triggers for action, according to Ethan Harris, co-head of global economic research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York: a slump in U.S. gross domestic product caused by a European recession, a more rapid slide in U.S. inflation than anticipated, and deteriorating U.S. payroll growth.

Confidence Among U.S. Homebuilders Climbs to Highest Since 2007 (Source: Bloomberg)
Confidence among U.S. homebuilders rose in January to the highest level in more than four years as sales and buyer traffic improved. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment gauge increased to 25 this month, exceeding the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and reaching the highest level since June 2007, the Washington-based group said today. Readings lower than 50 mean more respondents still said conditions were poor. Record-low borrowing costs, a growing population and reduced prices may drive demand for homes this year even as another round of foreclosures threatens to weigh on the market. The confidence measure, which increased for a fourth straight month, improved in all four regions of the U.S.

Goldman Shares Rise as Profit Beats Estimates on Lower Compensation Costs (Source: Bloomberg)
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) climbed 6.8 percent in New York trading after the bank reported profit that exceeded analysts’ estimates, helped by a reduction in compensation costs. The shares rose $6.63 to $104.31 at 4:15 p.m., after reaching $105.83 earlier today. Fourth-quarter net income at the New York-based company dropped 58 percent to $1.01 billion, or $1.84 a share, beating the $1.23 average estimate of 26 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Chief Executive Officer Lloyd C. Blankfein, 57, cut compensation 21 percent in 2011 as he reduced costs and focused on international growth to offset a slowdown in trading, which contributes most of the firm’s revenue. Goldman Sachs’s higher- than-estimated earnings contrasted with previous reports from Citigroup Inc. (C), which fell short of analysts’ estimates, and JPMorgan Chase & Co., which matched projections.

China Said to Allow Banks to Increase First-Quarter Lending by 5% Over ’11 (Source: Bloomberg)
China’s central bank is said to be allowing a limited increase in first-quarter lending by the nation’s five biggest banks to support growth as the economy's expansion moderates. The lenders can increase new loans by a maximum of about 5 percent from a year earlier, according to two people at state lenders who have knowledge of the matter. Separately, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRZ) has told lenders to contain local government debt risks, a person with knowledge of the matter said. The central bank won’t comment on anything related to credit quotas, a press official said in Beijing yesterday. China’s economic growth cooled to 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter, the slowest pace since the first half of 2009, as Europe’s debt crisis curbed export demand and the housing market weakened. Premier Wen Jiabao aims to sustain the expansion without re-inflating property-price bubbles or driving up consumer prices.

China’s Foreign Direct Investment Declines for Second Consecutive Month (Source: Bloomberg)
Foreign direct investment in China fell for the second straight month in December as global financial turmoil dimmed companies’ appetite for spending. Investment from overseas fell 12.73 percent to $12.24 billion last month from a year earlier, the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement in Beijing today. For the full year, spending rose 9.72 percent to a record $116 billion, the data showed. Investment fell 9.8 percent in November, the first decline since 2009. China announced amendments to policies to attract foreign funds last month, changes that may weigh on spending in some industries this year. Europe’s debt crisis and anticipated weaker growth in the U.S. this year may also limit investment, with central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan warning this month a global downturn could lead to “large” capital withdrawals from the country.

China Developers Ease Home Sales (Source: Bloomberg)
China’s biggest developers slowed home sales toward the end of 2011, bracing for the worst property market in three years as the government vows to keep real-estate curbs. Contract sales, or sales booked before apartments are completed, dropped 30 percent last month at China Vanke Co. (000002), as the country’s biggest developer by market value offered fewer homes from November. Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd. (3333), the second-biggest Chinese developer by revenue, said sales in November and December were the lowest for the year. Developers are looking for ways to preserve record sales last year as the impact of purchase limits and tighter mortgage requirements imposed by the government spreads. China’s home transactions will fall 10 percent this year, according to Daiwa Securities Capital Markets, while UBS AG says the curbs may boost supply to the highest in a decade.

Indonesia Wins Second Rating Upgrade in a Month as Investment Gets Boost (Source: Bloomberg)
Indonesia won its second credit rating upgrade in five weeks as Moody’s Investors Service returned the country to investment level for the first time since the Asian financial crisis. The foreign- and local-currency rating was increased to Baa3 from Ba1, Moody’s said in a statement yesterday. The outlook is stable. The upgrade brings Southeast Asia’s largest economy to the lowest investment grade, the same level as India, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Emerging-market economies from Brazil to Turkey and the Philippines are winning rating upgrades as governments take steps to contain budget deficits and bolster growth, even as Europe’s debt crisis prompted Standard & Poor’s to cut the credit ratings of nine members of the 17-nation euro area on Jan. 13. Yesterday’s decision may aid President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s efforts to spur expansion by boosting investment.

Brazil Cuts Interest Rate to 10.5% to Shield Economy From European Crisis (Source: Bloomberg)
Brazil’s central bank cut borrowing costs by half a point for a fourth straight policy meeting, continuing a cycle of monetary easing it began in August to shield the world’s second-largest emerging market from the European debt crisis. The bank’s board, led by President Alexandre Tombini, today voted unanimously to reduce the benchmark Selic rate to 10.5 percent from 11 percent, as forecast by all 67 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
The bank, in a statement identical to that after its previous meeting, said that “moderate adjustments” in the rate were consistent with reducing inflation to its 4.5 percent target in 2012. Brazil has taken the lead among emerging markets in cutting borrowing costs as the economy shrank in the third quarter for the first time since 2009. With inflation slowing in line with the central bank’s forecasts, and Europe struggling to dispel investor doubts over its debt crisis, Brazil will cut rates another half point in March, said Luciano Rostagno, chief strategist at CM Capital Markets.

South Africa May Keep Lending Rate at 30-Year low to Spur Growth (Source: Bloomberg)
South Africa will probably keep its benchmark lending rate at a 30-year low today to support the recovery in Africa’s biggest economy as inflation accelerated less than forecast. The Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Gill Marcus, will leave the repurchase rate at 5.5 percent for a seventh consecutive meeting, according to all 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Marcus will announce the decision at a televised press conference at 3 p.m. local time in the capital, Pretoria. The benchmark rate “is still pretty expansionary,” Sian Fenner, an economist at Lloyds Banking Group Plc in London, said in a telephone interview. “There are cost pressures there, but they are keeping an eye on what is happening with the economy.”
The Reserve Bank kept its key rate unchanged in 2011 as concerns that a worsening European debt crisis will derail the global recovery outweighed price risks. The inflation rate was unchanged at 6.1 percent in December, exceeding the central bank’s target range of 3 percent to 6 percent for a second month, according to data published by the statistics office yesterday.

IMF Seeks to Raise Lending Power by Up to $500 Billion Amid Europe Crisis (Source: Bloomberg)
The International Monetary Fund is proposing to raise its lending capacity by as much as $500 billion to insulate the global economy against any worsening of Europe’s debt crisis. The Washington-based lender is aiming to increase its resources after identifying a potential need for $1 trillion in financing in coming years, an IMF spokesman said in a statement. The IMF is studying options and will not comment further until it has consulted its members, the fund said. To incorporate a cash buffer, the lender is seeking a total $600 billion. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said yesterday her staff is looking at ways to expand the fund’s war-chest, which currently has about $385 billion available. While euro-region nations have already pledged to contribute 150 billion euros ($192 billion), the U.S. has said it has no plans to make new bilateral loans and leaders of Group of 20 nations ended last year at odds over the issue.

Sarkozy Promises $550 Million to Fight ‘Worsening’ French Unemployment (Source: Bloomberg)
French President Nicolas Sarkozy unveiled 430 million euros ($550 million) of measures to promote job creation and said he’ll make more structural proposals later this month. The measures announced after a so-called “Crisis Summit” with unions and business leaders today include more retraining, reduced charges for small companies hiring young workers and 1,000 new employees for job centers. The proposals, to be presented in a televised speech before the end of January, may include shifting some employee costs to value-added taxes from labor charges, overhauling retraining for the unemployed and creating a new partnership between the state and banks to finance industry, Sarkozy said after the meeting.
“We all agreed that in a serious economic situation and a worryingly worsening job market, we need strong and rapid responses,” said Sarkozy, who faces re-election in three months and is trailing in polls. He said the money promised today will be redeployed from elsewhere in the state’s budget, and won’t add to the deficit.

N.Z. Consumer Prices Unexpectedly Fall (Source: Bloomberg)
New Zealand consumer prices unexpectedly fell in the fourth quarter, giving the central bank scope to hold interest rates at a record-low until growth accelerates. The local currency dropped. Consumer prices declined 0.3 percent from the third quarter, when they advanced 0.4 percent, Statistics New Zealand said in Wellington today. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 15 economists was for a 0.4 percent increase. None forecast a decline. Prices rose 1.8 percent in the year ended Dec. 31, the slowest annual pace since September 2010. The first quarterly drop in prices since 2009 reflects an economy struggling to rebound from earthquakes in the past 16 months, even with a tourism boost from the Rugby World Cup. The inflation report sent the nation’s dollar falling from a 2 1/2- month high as investors increased bets central bank Governor Alan Bollard will keep the official cash rate at 2.5 percent until the second half of 2012.

20120119 0927 Global Commodities Related News.

Corn (Source: CME)
US corn futures end lower as worries about South America's crop move to the background amid weak demand. Traders say significant Argentina crop damage has already been priced into the market, and heat damage at this point is more of a worry for soybeans. Speculative funds were heavy sellers of an estimated 13,000 contracts, as the market resumed a downtrend started after last Thursday's bearish USDA report. Many traders expect the market to drift lower until early spring, when US spring planting comes into focus. CBOT March corn ends down 10 1/2c to $5.93 1/2 a bushel, its lowest level in a month.

Wheat (Source: CME)
U.S. wheat futures end lower, falling sharply on pressure from corn and weak demand. Slumping corn, which has led wheat recently, weighed on prices. Traders add that demand remains poor, and is unlikely to improve soon thanks to an abundance of wheat globally. CBOT March wheat ends down 12 1/2c to $5.92 1/4 a bushel while KCBT wheat closes down 20c, or 3%, to $6.53. MGEX March spring wheat, underpinned by improved demand for higher-protein wheat, closes down 7 3/4c to $8.00 3/4.

Rice (Source: CME)
US rice futures end lower, retreating from recent gains on spillover pressure from other grains. Rice joined corn and wheat in heading lower as speculative funds were sellers amid weak demand for grains generally. Demand for rice in particular has been weak for months, and the USDA last week cut demand projections for both domestic use and exports. CBOT March rice ends down 22 1/2c to $14.58.

Corn rises for 2nd day, soy dips on LatAm rain f'cast
SINGAPORE, Jan 18 (Reuters) - U.S. corn rose for a second straight session, with support from improved risk sentiment and tight global supplies, while soy slid on forecasts of rain in parts of the drought-hit South American grain belt.
"The weather is looking a little bit wetter over the next five days, especially over some of the most stressed areas in Argentina and southern Brazil," said Victor Thianpiriya, an agricultural commodity strategist at ANZ.

India allows rice exports beyond two million tonnes-govt
NEW DELHI, Jan 17 (Reuters) - India has allowed overseas sale of common rice beyond two million tonnes, officials said on Tuesday, removing a previous cap announced by Food Minister K. V. Thomas in September 2011.
"Our stocks are comfortable on a bumper harvest. So, we can continue with exports of rice and wheat," Thomas said on Tuesday. Ministry officials confirmed this removed the limit of two million tonnes.

Argentina's drought to keep punishing corn, soy
BUENOS AIRES, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Argentine corn and soy farms will suffer from hot weather and scant rains for the rest of this week, forecasters said on Tuesday, increasing worries that crop losses will eat into global supplies.
Argentina, which supplies about 20 percent of the world's corn exports and 12 percent of its soybeans, has been pounded for weeks by an unrelenting Southern Hemisphere summer sun.

Tajikistan plans bigger grain harvest in 2012
DUSHANBE, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Tajikistan plans to increase grain production by about one-third this year as farmers revert to growing wheat after a switch to other crops last year resulted in the Central Asian country's biggest cotton harvest since 2007.
Deputy Agriculture Minister Sidzhouddin Isroilov said on Tuesday that Tajikistan, which aims to produce all the grain it consumes by 2015, would grow around 1.5 million tonnes in 2012.

UK wheat exports gather pace during November
LONDON, Jan 17 (Reuters) - UK wheat exports picked up in November as customs data confirmed the sale of a cargo to the United States, although shipments remained below year-earlier levels.
Shipments during November totalled 442,797 tonnes, up from the prior month's 272,968 tonnes and the highest monthly total so far in the 2011/12 season, which started on July 1, 2011.

S.Africa's weekly maize exports jump
JOHANNESBURG, Jan 17 (Reuters) - South Africa exported 38,486 tonnes of white maize last week compared with 7,954 tonnes in the previous week, the South African Grain Information Service (SAGIS) said on Tuesday.
Exports of yellow maize were recorded at 3,045 tonnes, compared with 1,748 tonnes in the week before, SAGIS said on its website www.sagis.org.za.

Canada Pulse, Special Crop Production To Rise In 2012-13: Ag Canada (Source: CME)
Production of Canada's major pulse and special crops is expected to rise by 10% in 2012/13 (August/July), with acres on all crops, except lentils, also increasing, according to the first new crop supply/demand projections from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's Market Analysis Division, released late Jan. 17. Production of the major pulse and special crops in Canada was estimated at 4.560 million tons in 2012/13, up from 4.130 million tons in 2011/12. The production compares with the 2010/11 level of 5.755 million tons. Total planted area was forecast to rise by 9%, with the largest increase in dry peas where seeded area is forecast at 2.9 million acres, from 2.3 million. Total area seeded to pulse and special crops was forecast at 6.3 million in 2012/13, from 5.8 million the previous year. The seven major specialty and pulse crops include: dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas, mustard seed, canary seed and sunflower seed.
Exports of Canada's special and pulse crops for 2012/13 were forecast at 3.925 million tons, which would be up slightly from the 3.815 million tons expected in 2011/12, but still down from 4.791 million tons in 2010/11. Domestic usage in 2012/13 was expected to come in at 753,000 tons, down from the 2011/12 estimate of 793,000 tons and the 2010/11 level of 766,000 tons. Ending stocks of the seven major special and pulse crops for 2012/13 were pegged by Agriculture Canada at 1.230 million tons, which compares with a forecast of 1.200 million tons for 2011/12 and the 2010/11 carryout of 1.530 million tons. Jan. 17 estimates for Canadian 2012/13 (August/July), 2011/12 and 2010/11 pulse and special crop supply and demand.

Iraq Tightens Rice Import Norms; Asian Origins May Not Qualify (Source: CME)
Iraq has raised the quality standards for rice import tenders, making it very difficult for Asian origins to qualify, trading executives said. In its latest tender, which opens later Wednesday, Iraq has increased the minimum length of grain and reduced the stipulated amount of broken and chalky grain, said a Singapore-based trading executive who offers rice at tenders issued by Iraq's state-run grain board. The minimum length of the grain has been revised to 6.8 millimeters from 6.0 millimeters. "With stipulation for such long grain, we can only offer the premium basmati grades and not ordinary rice," an exporter in New Delhi said.
Iraq is also seeking cargoes with a maximum broken content of 3% instead of the usual 5% and has reduced the permissible amount of chalky or inferior grain to 2% from 4%. Even in Thailand and Vietnam, two of the top exporters, chalky grain content is usually more than 5%. The latest quality norms are aimed at eliminating Asian origins and there is a strong possibility that only rice from the U.S. and South America will qualify, an executive with a global commodities trading company said. Since end-September, Iraq has purchased around 300,000 metric tons from India and Pakistan in a series of tenders, subject to pre-shipment clearance of samples.
However, it rejected most of the samples on the grounds that the cooked grain wasn't in line with local tastes. Iraq is one of the top importers, buying around 1.3 million tons annually, mostly from the Americas and Southeast Asia. In recent months, India and Pakistan have tried to make inroads into the market with competitive prices. Indian and Pakistani grades are $100-$150/ton cheaper than Thailand and Uruguay. "Indian and Pakistani rice was the cheapest offered in the tenders, so Iraq awarded the contracts but subsequently rejected most samples. And to avoid a repeat of such a situation, it has altered the quality norms," an exporter in Karachi said.
He said Iraq wants to discourage trading companies from offering rice whose taste is unacceptable, even if it is cheaper. Iraqi grain board officials couldn't be immediately reached for comment.

Legal Aftermath Of Cotton's Wild Ride Continues Into 2012 (Source: CME)
Legal trouble sparked by wild swings in the price of cotton during 2011 is bleeding over into this year. The International Cotton Association, which sets the rules for most of the world's cotton trade, said that it has received 16 requests for arbitration so far this year. Between 2000 and 2010, requests averaged 45 annually. Last March, cotton prices on ICE Futures U.S. surged to a record high of $2.27 a pound but the prices nearly extinguished global demand for the fiber and drove futures prices down 37% in 2011. Many mills cancelled orders for cotton, sparking a wave of cancellations for fiber that had been purchased at the higher prices for delivery later in the year. The effects reverberated throughout the industry, crushing margins at apparel companies, commodity firms and textile mills. The Liverpool-based ICA received a record 242 requests in 2011. Cotton mills and merchants prefer ICA arbitration over courts in each country because the process is often faster, more uniform and less expensive.
Last week, the ICA's president, Antonio Esteve, said a volatile market could severely damage the industry. "It is easy to succumb to the attraction of short-term gains, but history shows that this will create irreparable damage that will affect the long-term economic sustainability of the cotton supply chain," he said in a statement. The ICA said it has developed a training course for spinners and cotton brokers to promote "responsible contracting." Cotton for March delivery on ICE Futures U.S. was recently trading at 97.70c a pound, down 0.5% on the day.

Sugar Traders Wager That Biggest Glut in Five Years Is Ending: Commodities (Source: Bloomberg)
Traders are betting that the biggest sugar glut since 2007 will shrink in the next harvest, reversing expectations from six months ago and ending the largest decline in prices in a decade. Raw sugar for March 2013 is trading at a premium of 3.9 percent to the July 2012 contract on ICE Futures U.S. in New York, compared with a 6.6 percent discount six months ago. The switch is reflecting a change in outlook even before forecasts for the next season from the International Sugar Organization or U.S. Department of Agriculture. Prices may rise as much as 12 percent to 27 cents a pound by Dec. 31, according to the median of 21 analyst and trader estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Futures fell 27 percent last year, the most since 2001, as a glut emerged after three consecutive annual shortages. Traders are now focused on the prospect for crops in India and Brazil, which account for 38 percent of output. The predicted rally may curb a drop in global food prices tracked by the United Nations that drove costs to a 14-month low in December.

Nicaragua coffee exports fall by near 50 pct in Dec
MANAGUA, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Coffee exports from Nicaragua dropped to 52,120 60-kg bags in December, 45.7 percent less than was exported in the same month last year, the country's export board said on Tuesday.
The harvesting season in Central America and Mexico, which together produce more than one-fifth of the world's arabica coffee, begins in October and comes to a close in September.

Ivorian cocoa exports hit 444,174 T by Jan. 8 -BCC
ABIDJAN, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Exports of cocoa beans and cocoa products from Ivory Coast hit 444,174 tonnes by Jan. 8 since the start of the season in October, down about 3 percent from a year earlier, data from industry regulator BCC obtained by Reuters showed on Tuesday.
During the same period of the 2010-11 season, the top cocoa grower nation exported 458,889 tonnes of cocoa beans and products, according to BCC figures.

Indonesia coffee exports up 14 pct in 2012 -industry
JAKARTA, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Coffee exports from Indonesia, the world's third-largest producer, are likely to climb 14.3 percent to 400,000 tonnes this year, the Indonesia Coffee Exporters and Industries Association (AEKI) said on Tuesday.
"It is difficult to predict our coffee exports in 2012 because weather conditions now have a big impact on the coffee harvest and output," said Suyanto Husein, AEKI chairman. "We expect we could export 400,000 tonnes of coffee in 2012."

Euro Coal-S.Africa prices rise $3/T
LONDON, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Prompt South African coal prices rallied by around $3 a tonne on Tuesday as players covered short positions, but this strength was unlikely to last unless China resumes heavy buying in February, traders and utilities said.
Chinese importers have been out of the market for the past few weeks and are not expected to return until after the New Year holidays, but a few have been quietly re-selling cargoes since last week.

Beyond oil a gloomier 2012 economy seen in coal, freight
LONDON, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Oil prices may still be riding high but for a more accurate picture of the state of the global economy in 2012, look at recent developments in the non-oil energy, freight and metals sectors.
Coal and power benchmark futures prices have fallen to their lowest levels since late 2010, while the Baltic Dry Freight Index, a barometer of demand for shipping, is languishing at a three-year low.

Brent rises above $112 on weak dollar, demand growth hopes
SINGAPORE, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Brent crude rose above $112 as the dollar weakened and a slew of positive economic indicators,
from China to the United States, eased demand concerns triggered by the debt crisis in Europe.
"Oil markets are still rallying on positive data, particularly from China, and expectations of more easing by the country to ensure steady growth," said Natalie Robertson, an analyst at ANZ. "Eyes are also on Europe as talks of a Greek default return. That's a factor weighing on markets."

Oil Moves Lower as U.S. Rejects Permit for Keystone XL Pipeline (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil declined in New York as the Obama administration denied a permit for TransCanada Corp. (TRP)’s Keystone XL pipeline, which would have carried crude to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries from Alberta’s oil sands. West Texas Intermediate oil, the U.S. benchmark, retreated after two people familiar with the matter said the rejection was imminent. The announcement came after the close of floor trading. Oil climbed earlier after the Federal Reserve figures showed that U.S. industrial output rose 0.4 percent in December. “Inventories are going to increase because of this,” said Stephen Schork, president of the Schork Group in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “There was a bet that WTI would move closer to the world price this year” and the Keystone rejection will end that prospect, he said. Crude oil for February delivery fell 12 cents to settle at $100.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It dropped to $99.84 from $100.98 on the Keystone news before rebounding.

Iron Ore-Spot slips as physical buying thins
SINGAPORE, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Spot iron ore prices edged lower in thin trading as buyers in top importer China became even more scarce ahead of next week's Lunar New Year holiday.
Offer prices for imported ore in China were steady on Wednesday, although index reference prices which are based on actual transactions fell for a second day on Tuesday.

Copper Rises to 17-Week High on Bullish U.S. Manufacturing, Housing Data (Source: Bloomberg)
Copper futures rose to a 17-week high as reports showing gains in U.S. manufacturing and homebuilder sentiment bolstered prospects for metal demand. Factory output rebounded in December, climbing the most in a year as production of business equipment, automobiles and construction materials rose, figures from the Federal Reserve showed today. A National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo gauge showed homebuilder confidence rose in January to the highest in more than four years. Stocks rose, driving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to a five-month high. “The U.S. economic data is supporting equities, and copper is moving with that,” Adam Klopfenstein, a market strategist at Archer Financial Services Inc. in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “Any time you see positive news out of the housing sector, that’s bullish for copper.”

Gold Futures Rally as Slumping Dollar May Boost Demand for Precious Metal (Source: Bloomberg)
Gold futures climbed to the highest settlement price in five weeks as a slumping dollar boosted the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative asset. The greenback declined for the second day against a basket of major currencies after U.S. factory output in December climbed the most in a year as production of business equipment, automobiles and construction materials rose, figures from the Federal Reserve showed today. The International Monetary Fund proposed boosting its resources by as much as $500 billion to safeguard the global economy. “The dollar’s weakness is supporting gold,” David Meger, the director of metal trading at Vision Financial Markets in Chicago, said in a telephone interview.

Baltic index at near 3-year low, seen pressured
LONDON, Jan 17 (Reuters) - The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates to ship dry commodities, fell to its lowest in nearly three years on Tuesday as weak cargo demand, worsening economic prospects and a vessel glut weighed on sentiment.
The shipping sector in coming months is expected to face a supply glut and economic gloom, including concerns over the outlook for Chinese demand for raw materials, which will pressure earnings.    

20120119 0926 Soy Oil & Palm Oil Related News.

Malaysia's 2012 Palm Oil Output seen at 19.33 million tonnes - MPOB Official
Malaysia's 2012 Palm Oil Output up on estates coming into maturity, impact from replanting 2-3 years ago - MPOB Official 

Soybeans (Source: CME)
US soybean futures are little changed, managing to recover from early declines on traders unwinding corn/soy spreads. South American weather remains the dominant issue for grain markets. With rains alleviating some near term crop threats in Argentina, traders reduced risk exposure in corn while remaining concerned about soy crops, said AgResource's Dan Basse. The impact of weather on soybean yields is greater at this point than corn, and a shift back to hot, dry conditions could cut soy yields as they move through their critical development phase, Basse adds. CBOT March soybeans ended unchanged at $11.83 1/2/bushel, while March corn dropped nearly 2%.


Soybean Meal/Oil (Source: CME)
Soy-product futures end mixed as soyoil slid on spillover weakness from crude and slowing demand from the biodiesel industry. But soymeal bounced from early weakness in unison with soybeans. Traders bought meal against oil on spreads amid optimism for increased livestock-feed demand moving forward, analysts say. CBOT March soyoil dropped 0.37c to 50.40c/pound while March soymeal ended up $1.50 at $312/short ton.

Average palm prices to fall in 2012 after 3 years of gains
KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Average palm oil prices are set to decline in 2012 for the first time in three years, squeezed by ample supply from Southeast Asia and faltering demand as global growth weakens because of Europe's debt crisis.
A median poll of 25 analysts tracking top palm oil producers Indonesia and Malaysia showed 2012 price expectations for the tropical oil stood at a median 3,000 ringgit ($960) per tonne, unchanged from a survey conducted in July.

Palm oil dips in thin trade on Europe woes
SINGAPORE, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures eased as lingering European debt worries overshadowed expectations that erratic weather in south America and southeast Asia could limit edible oil supply.
"For the next two days, things will slow down as the long weekend is coming and traders will be off. We can look forward to some position squaring," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia, referring to the Lunar New Year holidays next week.

Heavy rains relieve Brazil's parched No. 2 soy state
SAO PAULO, Jan 17 (Reuters) - For the next 10 days heavy rains will lash Parana, Brazil's No. 2 soybean growing state, soaking crops badly in need of moisture after a long drought, forecasters predicted Tuesday, but no rain was headed for dry Rio Grande do Sul.
Parana, a southern state, bore the brunt of a prolonged dry spell in what is usually a wet summer season due to the La Nina weather anomaly, which the U.S. Climate Prediction Center has said could last until May.

China's soybean imports to rise again- Oil World
HAMBURG, Jan 17 (Reuters) - China, the world's largest soybean buyer, is likely to raise soybean imports up to July 2012 after recent falls but large port inventories could hinder purchasing in the immediate future, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
The United States, Brazil and Argentina together exported 19.3 million tonnes of soybeans to China in Sept./Dec. 2011, up 1.1 million tonnes or 6 percent on the year, Oil World estimates.